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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."